It looks like the EUR/USD is making a triangle consolidation. Typically, the moves within such a triangle are 3-waves, and also typically, wave E fails to touch the lower side of the triangle. A possible strategy here is: long if EUR breaks out of the triangle (i.e. breaks above 1.3830) with a tight stop loss back inside the triangle (1.3782 I would take). I would take half of my profit at 1.4010, and half at 1.4070.
The AUD touched its Aug-Sept resistance line, and bounced back from it. A resistance line that is tested twice doesn’t tell us much. One that is tested 3 times (like this one), that’s something else. That means that the price recognises the line as a valid resistance line. That means: short, with a stop loss above the line. First target/support is the pivot line (former neckline of a head & shoulders that did not work) at 1.0060. Below this line, the door would be open again towards a retest of the 0.9400 support. Will the resistance line hold? The market will tell. Anyway, it gives us a nice opportunity to short here, with a short stop loss.
- Longer term support lies at 0.8530 and must hold in order to keep the outlook higher with 0.8890 and 0.9130 as next target levels on the way up. Failure below 0.8530 would negate the bullish outlook, and would instead argue for further losses towards 0.8350.
- Short term, the euro is trapped in a range between support at 0.8530 and resistance at 0.8790. A break above latter level is needed in order to trigger a bullish signal opening the door to 0.8890.
- A break back below 0.8530 on the other hand, would break the larger 2010-2011 uptrend targeting 0.8350.
- The major tops and bottoms of the past several months are all lower, indicating that the longer term trend is down.
- Shorter term though, sterling seems capped by resistance at 1.5850/1.5950. Failure to overcome latter level would keep the outlook bearish with 1.5540 and 1.5345 as next target levels on the way down.
- It would take a break back above 1.5945 in order to negate the immediate bearish risk. Such a break would allow a further upward correction with 1.6100 as next potential target/resistance.
- The break above the long term downtrend resistance line indicates that the long term trend has now shifted to the upside. The longer term outlook is higher with 0.9330 and 0.9760 as next targets on the way up.
- Shorter term, the outlook is neutral as the dollar trapped in a range between support at 0.8900/0.8880 and resistance at 0.9110/0.9165.
- A break back below 0.8880 would be bearish opening the door to 0.8660.
- A break above 0.9165 on the other hand, is needed in order to make the outlook bullish suggesting a retest of 0.9330.
- The USD/JPY remains trapped in a sideways consolidation between support at 76.00 and resistance at 77.70.
- It would take a break above latter level in order to trigger a bullish signal suggesting a further rise towards the longer term downtrend resistance line at 79.50/80.00.
- A break back below 76.00 on the other hand, would be bearish opening the door to a test of next potential support at 74.80.
- The longer term outlook remains bearish: the weekly MACD remains bearish and the AUD is still capped by a downtrend resistance line at 1.0375/1.0400.
- Latter level should hold in order to keep the short term outlook bearish with 1.0050 and 0.9870 as next target/support levels on the way down.
- Only a break back above 1.0400 would negate the immediate bearish outlook making 1.0485 next resistance on the way up.
- On the way up, the euro faces resistance in the 107.90/108.55 area. In this area, we find the former 2010-2011 support line which may now act as resistance.
- Failure to overcome this resistance would keep the outlook lower, with 104.75/103.90 as first, and 100.50 as next target/support levels on the way down.
- Only a break back above 108.60 would negate the immediate bearish outlook allowing further gains towards 111.80.
- On the way up, the euro faces resistance in the 107.90/108.55 area. In this area, we find the former 2010-2011 support line which may now act as resistance.
- Failure to overcome this resistance would keep the outlook lower, with 104.75/103.90 as first, and 100.50 as next target/support levels on the way down.
- Only a break back above 108.60 would negate the immediate bearish outlook allowing further gains towards 111.80.
- The euro fell below its support lines and the weekly MACD indicator turned bearish indicating that the longer term trend is down with 1.2870 as next target/support on the way down.
- Shorter term, the euro almost reached its 1.3930/1.4015 resistance area. Provided that this resistance holds, the outlook would be bearish again with 1.3440 and 1.3150 as next target/support levels on the way down.
- A break above resistance at 1.4015 would make the 1.4215/1.4250 area next resistance on the way up. Nevertheless, it is the bearish risk that now prevails.